KY-HRD-WTD $ 412.00 −3.10% KY-WHTOAK $ 1,840 +1.20% KY-REDOAK $ 920 −2.80% KY-HKRY $ 740 +0.40% KY-MAPLE $ 612 −0.90% KY-POPLAR $ 282 +2.10% KY-ASH $ 480 −4.40% KY-WALNUT $ 2,640 +0.80% SE-PINE-PUL $ 8.40 +1.60% SE-PINE-SAW $ 32.10 −0.30% NA-LUMBER $ 482 +1.10% OSB-NA $ 318 −2.40% PULP-NBSK $ 1,420 +0.20% BIO-PELLET-EU € 168 +1.40% CHIP-EXP-SE $ 184 +0.60% VENEER-WOAK $ 4,820 +2.20% BARREL-STAVE $ 6,800 +3.10% CARBON-TRMV $ 18.40 +5.20% CARBON-CCB $ 22.10 +3.80% FREIGHT-BDI 1,184 −1.20% KY-HRD-WTD $ 412.00 −3.10% KY-WHTOAK $ 1,840 +1.20% KY-REDOAK $ 920 −2.80% KY-HKRY $ 740 +0.40% KY-MAPLE $ 612 −0.90% KY-POPLAR $ 282 +2.10% KY-ASH $ 480 −4.40% KY-WALNUT $ 2,640 +0.80%
§ KY-HARDWOOD · HEADLINE · primary indicator · flag IND-STUMP · DOS-006
KY-HRD-WTD · Stumpage Weighted Blend
USD/MBF · 5Y · DAILY · ALERT-RAISED
KY · HARDWOOD · STUMPAGEWHITE OAK 32 % · RED OAK 18 % · POPLAR 14 % · HICKORY 9 % · MAPLE 8 % · ASH 6 % · WALNUT 4 % · OTHERS 9 %
▼ TRIPPED 2026·05·01 · ASH WAVE
680 580 480 380
2021 2022 2023
2024 2025 26
WATCHLIST · KY HARDWOOD 8 SYMBOLS
SYMBOL NAME PX Δ
WHTOAK White oak 1C/Btr 1,840 +1.20
REDOAK Red oak 1C/Btr 920 −2.80
POPLAR Yellow poplar 282 +2.10
HKRY Hickory mix 740 +0.40
MAPLE Hard maple 612 −0.90
ASH White ash · EAB 480 −4.40
WALNUT Black walnut · prime 2,640 +0.80
VENEER White-oak veneer log 4,820 +2.20
WIRE · WOOD ECONOMY 14 NEW · 0:42 AGO
09:47 WIRE · ALERT KY hardwood weighted blend prints −3.10 % on EAB-driven ash dump · CHIMS rule R-022 raised to AMB
09:32 WIRE White-oak veneer log strengthens on bourbon-cooperage pull · PA / KY barrel-stave benchmark $6,800/MBF
09:18 FILING Westvaco MeadCo files SEC 10-Q · NA pulp pricing guidance held flat through Q3
08:54 WIRE EU Pellet · MWB benchmark prints €168/t · biomass demand from DE / PL utilities holds bid
08:22 FED USDA FHM publishes Q1 2026 EAB infestation poly · 61.2 % ash mortality in Cumberland Plateau plots
07:48 WIRE Random Lengths NA Lumber Composite +1.10 % WoW · OSB drags on housing-starts data
07:14 POL KY DOF Q1 stumpage report · weighted blend −2.6 % QoQ · ash species the principal weight
KY-WHTOAK 2Y · DAILY
WHITE OAK · 1C/BtrBtr veneer · stave grade
KY-REDOAK 2Y · DAILY
RED OAK · 1C/Btrfurniture / domestic flooring
KY-ASH · ALERT 2Y · DAILY · EAB
ASH · WHITE/GREENEAB infestation overhang
KY-WALNUT 2Y · DAILY
BLACK WALNUT · primeexport · gun-stock · veneer
§ NA · SE-PINE · LUMBER · OSB · regional benchmarks
SE-PINE-PUL PINE PULPWOOD · 5Y
SE PINE · PULPWOODTimber Mart-South · weighted
SE-PINE-SAW SAWTIMBER · 5Y
SE PINE · SAWTIMBER2-sided 6" · DBH avg
NA-LUMBER RANDOM LENGTHS · 2Y
NA LUMBER · COMPOSITE$/MBF · framing pkg
OSB-NA 7/16" · 2Y
NA OSB · 7/16"$/MSF · housing-starts proxy
PULP · NBSK $ / METRIC TONNE · 5Y
NBSK PULP · NORTH AMER.spot price · domestic
EU PELLET · MWB € / TONNE · 3Y
EU PELLET · MWB INDEXbiomass · domestic+export
CARBON · CCB / VRM $ / tCO2e · 3Y
FOREST · CARBON CREDITSCCB-flagged · voluntary
§ HEATMAP · CORRELATION · BOOK · Δ % session · 24h
HEATMAP · 24 SPECIES/PRODUCTS Δ % · 24H
WHT-OAK-VEN +2.20
BARREL-STAVE +3.10
WHT-OAK +1.20
HKRY +0.40
POPLAR +2.10
BEECH +0.05
WALNUT +0.80
SE-PINE-PUL +1.60
RED-OAK −2.80
ASH −4.40
MAPLE-HD −0.90
OSB-NA −2.40
SE-PINE-SAW −0.30
NA-LUMBER +1.10
NBSK +0.20
EU-PELLET +1.40
CHIP-EXP +0.60
CARBON-VRM +5.20
CARBON-CCB +3.80
FREIGHT-BDI −1.20
USD/CNY +0.05
USD/EUR +0.20
RUBBERWD +1.10
BAMBOO +0.10
CORRELATION · 12-MO PEARSON ρ · weekly
WOAK
ROAK
POPL
MPLE
ASH
PINE
PULP
WOAK
1.00
.78
.42
.51
.18
.46
.22
ROAK
.78
1.00
.55
.48
.62
.44
.31
POPL
.42
.55
1.00
.34
.28
.66
.41
MPLE
.51
.48
.34
1.00
.22
.30
.04
ASH
.18
.62
.28
.22
1.00
.02
−.18
PINE
.46
.44
.66
.30
.02
1.00
.74
PULP
.22
.31
.41
.04
−.18
.74
1.00
CARB
.18
.05
.22
−.20
−.34
.16
.30
RFQ · LEDGERED ORDERS 12 OPEN · 4 PARTIAL · 6 FILLED
RFQ# SPEC PX QTY STATE
R-1842 WHT-OAK · stave · 36" $1,920 42 MBF OPEN
R-1843 RED-OAK · 1C · KD $960 88 MBF OPEN
R-1844 WALNUT · prime · veneer $2,720 14 MBF PARTIAL
R-1845 POPLAR · pulp · chips $262 220 t FILLED
R-1846 PINE · sawlog · 8' $32.20 580 t OPEN
R-1847 EU-PELLET · A1 · DDP DE €172 2,400 t OPEN
R-1848 HKRY · prem · BBQ $760 28 MBF PARTIAL
R-1849 CARBON · CCB · KY hardwood $22.40 8,400 tCO2e OPEN
R-1850 CHIP · export · SE port $184 14,400 t FILLED
R-1851 VENEER · WOAK · prem $4,820 9 MBF OPEN
R-1852 ASH · clear · low-grade $420 120 MBF OPEN
§ GLOBAL · TRADE FLOWS · export / import dashboards · KY → world
GLOBAL · WHITE-OAK EXPORT FLOW SCHEDULE B 4407.95 · KY ORIGIN · YTD
KY · ORIGIN
CHINA · 38%
JP · 14%
EU-DE · 22%
UK · 8%
FR · 6%
VN · 4%
KR · 3%
AU · 2%
EXPORT · VOLUMES BY DEST YTD · MBF · WHITE-OAK
FLAG DEST YTD MBF SHARE Δ YoY
CN China · Tianjin / Shanghaifurniture / cooperage
28,400 38% +12% DE Germany · Hamburgcooperage · barrel
16,200 22% +8% JP Japan · Yokohamafurniture · veneer
10,400 14% +3% UK United Kingdom · Felixstowecooperage
5,940 8% +1% FR France · Le Havrecognac cooperage
4,420 6% −2% VN Vietnam · Hai Phongfurniture re-export
3,180 4% +22% KR S. Korea · Busanfurniture
2,200 3% −6% AU Australia · Sydneycooperage
1,460 2% +4% CA Canada · Vancouverfurniture
1,160 2% ±0% OTH Other (12 dests)mixed
1,840 3% +5% ∑ TOTAL · KY · 4407.95 75,240 100% +8.4%
§ DOWNSTREAM · LABOR · INFRA · secondary products + workforce + freight
BARREL-STAVE · PA/KY USD/MBF · 5Y
BOURBON · STAVE BLENDcooperage demand · KY+PA
VENEER · WHT-OAK USD/MBF · 5Y
VENEER · WHT-OAK PREMIUMexport · cabinet
FREIGHT · BDI BALTIC DRY · 2Y
BALTIC DRY INDEXbreak-bulk lumber proxy
LABOR · KY/APP LOGGING BLS NAICS 1133 · MEDIAN $/HR
APPALACHIAN · LOGGING WAGEmedian · BLS · YoY
— median wage
--- fatality rate per 100k
14 fatalities · last 12 mo · cohort-05 · alert AMB
DEPTH · WHT-OAK BID/ASK MBF · LIVE LADDER
PX $ BID MBF ASK MBF
1880 — 72
1865 — 88
1858 — 64
1850 — 44
1845 — 18
1840 · LAST 12 / 12 +1.20 %
1835 22 —
1828 44 —
1822 68 —
1815 92 —
1808 124 —
1800 184 —
BID-ASK SPREAD · $5 · DEPTH BUY 534 / SELL 286 MBF
SCENARIO · WHT-OAK 2030 FOP MODEL · m-WOAK-08
FOREST·OP HOUSE FORECASTDRIVERS · BOURBON DEMAND · EAB · DC LAND CONVERSION
NOW
BULL · $2,640 · +43%
BASE · $2,180 · +18%
BEAR · $1,720 · −7%
MODEL · m-WOAK-08 · sha:b4e2..c1f8 · last fit 2026·04·30 · R²=0.74
§ BIOMASS · CARBON · CHIPS · climate-linked secondary indicators
CHIP-EXP · SE PORTS USD/T · 5Y
SE CHIP · EXPORT BLENDbreak-bulk · pulpmill
CARBON · VRM $/tCO2e · 3Y
VOLUNTARY · REM · MARKETverified emission rem
USD/CNY FX · 1Y
USD / CNYoak-export tail-risk
ALERTS · WIRED TO CHIMS / CMD 3 LIVE · OWNER CARDELL / WALDEN
RED IND-STUMP KY hardwood weighted blend tripped −3.10 % session — ASH the principal weight (−4.40 %). Linked CHIMS R-022, raised to AMB, watch RED in T-72h.
AMB IND-EAB USDA FHM Q1 plot survey · ash mortality 61.2 % · forecast pulls KY-ASH stumpage to $390 / MBF Q3.
AMB IND-CARBON Voluntary REM market +5.20 % session · forest-carbon CCB premium widening — Cardie reviewing whether ledger admits new carbon-claim rows w/o V-grade methodology.
CROSS-LINK → LEDGER / ATLAS / CHIMS
SECURITY → CLAIM
KY-HRD-WTD ↔ CLAIM #1622 R IND-STUMP · CHIMS DOS-006KY DOF · Forest Health Section Cardell · briefing 2026·05·05