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CHIMS · CIVIC HEALTH
INFORMATION · MONITORING
Forest·OP · Bulletin No. 47 · est. 2024

THE CIVIC LEDGER

A weekly accounting of who pays, who is harmed, and who has the power to act.
ISSUE · VOL. 02 · NO. 47
DATE · 2026 · MAY · 04
OBSERVER · CARDELL F. BONSLATER III
INDICATORS · 284 · ALERTS · 11 LIVE
LEXINGTON · KY · 40508 READ TIME · 18 MIN DEPTH · RATE-CLASS · DC SHIFT · OCR PUB. WEEKLY · MON 06:00 EDT

The data-center bill arrives at the kitchen table.

Kentucky's PSC approved Rate EHLF on February 16. By the time the postmark dries, an average KU household is paying +$8.73 per month — a 6.54 percent increase the Joint Intervenors traced through CPCN docket 2025-00045 to capacity that the utility forecasts mostly for hyperscale loads not yet built.

This bulletin maps the indicators we trip on, the cohorts most exposed, and the alerts already raised. It is the civic-health twin to ATLAS — every number below pins to a place, and every place pins to a claim.

RES · BURDEN · KU+ $8.73 / mo
COHORTS · ALERT7 / 26
INDICATORS · TRIPPED11
PUBLIC HEALTH XOVER3 panels
TITLE VI · OPEN1 (UK)
CLAIMS · BOUND284
§ 01

INDICATOR · DASHBOARD

TRIPPED
IND-LG&E-RES-Δ · DOS-001
Residential rate burden · KU
$ / household / month · 12-mo trailing
+8.73
+ 6.54 %
SOURCE · PSCUPD · 2026-02-16
TRIPPED
IND-LGE-GAS-Δ · DOS-001
Gas residential burden · LG&E
$ / household / month · YoY
+8.27
+11.09 %
SOURCE · PSCUPD · 2026-02-16
TRIPPED
IND-DC-LOAD · DOS-002
Datacenter forecast load · KY
peak MW · LG&E + KU IRP
2,140
+38.4 %
SOURCE · IRPUPD · 2025-12-30
TRIPPED
IND-CAPEX-KY · DOS-001
Aggregate new-gen capex
$ B · 2024-2031 · KY IOUs
5.43
$5.43 B
SOURCE · CPCNUPD · 2025-10-28
CALM
IND-ROE · DOS-001
PSC-allowed ROE · IOU
% · authorized return on equity
9.90
+ 47 bps
SOURCE · PSCUPD · 2026-02-16
TRIPPED
IND-ECHO-VIO · DOS-006
CWA enforcement events · KY
violations · 90-day rolling
214
+ 62
SOURCE · EPA ECHOUPD · 2026-04-30
CALM
IND-CANOPY-KY · DOS-006
Forest canopy cover · KY
% · NLCD interpolated · YoY
47.4
− 0.4 pp
SOURCE · NLCDUPD · 2024-08-01
WARN
IND-EAB · DOS-006
EAB infestation · ash mort.
% mortality in surveyed plots
61.2
+ 4.7 pp
SOURCE · USDA FHMUPD · 2026-03-15
WATCH
IND-OCR-UK · DOS-005
UK OCR resolution compliance
% benchmarks met · 36-month plan
42
on schedule
SOURCE · ED OCRUPD · 2026-04-15
TRIPPED
IND-PWS-LEAD · DOS-006
Lead exceedances · PWS
action-level events · 90-day
9
+ 3
SOURCE · SDWAUPD · 2026-04-22
CALM
IND-STUMP · DOS-006
Hardwood stumpage · KY
$ / MBF · weighted blend
412
− 3.1 %
SOURCE · KY DOFUPD · 2026-04-30
WARN
IND-DISP-PRE · DOS-004
Displacement risk · index
composite · housing+rate+ECHO
71
+ 9
SOURCE · FOP compositeUPD · 2026-05-01
§ 02

RATE-CLASS · BURDEN MONITOR

CASES 2025-00113 / 00114 · APPROVED 2026-02-16

The cost-shift, ledgered by class.

Rate EHLF, the new high-load-factor class for data-centers, was approved with thresholds of 50 MVA, 85 percent load factor, and a 15-year minimum term. The figures here track where the revenue requirement actually lands — and what fraction of the new generation's cost the utility has so far assigned to each class.

Rate-EHLF-specific cost-of-service decomposition is not yet on file. Until that COS arrives, the dollar-for-dollar trace from data-center load to residential bill remains R-grade in the ledger.

The Special-Contract authority of the Commission is unaffected by the approval of Rate EHLF.
— Witness Hornung · cross-examination · 2025·11·06
RATE CLASSΔ $ / MOΔ %SHARE OF CAPEXSTATE
Residential · KU+$8.73+6.54%
SHIFTED
Residential · LG&E elec+$5.14+4.73%
SHIFTED
Residential · LG&E gas+$8.27+11.09%
SHIFTED
General Service · sm+$11.40+5.20%
PARTIAL
Industrial · standard+$240+1.10%
FLAT
Rate EHLF · datacenterNEW
CARVE-OUT
Special Contract · open??
UNKNOWN
SHARE OF CAPEX = % of $5.43 B IRP capex assigned to class via PSC-stipulated COS · joint-intervenor brief 2025·12·18
A civic indicator without a named decision-maker is a feeling. A civic indicator with one is a debt.
— CHIMS · methodology preface · §0.4
§ 03

COHORTS · 26 SEGMENTS

COHORT · 01 · DEMO + RATE
Energy-burdened households · KY

Households where energy expenditure exceeds 6 % of gross income. KU + LG&E service territories, 2026 rate basis.

HOUSEHOLDS184,200
Δ '24-'26+ 9.1%
MEDIAN BURDEN8.4%
ALERTRED
COHORT · 02 · GEO + ENV
Eastern KY coalfield communities

Counties with active coal-to-DC retrofit zones. ECHO > 1 facility / 5 km², median income < 70 % of state.

POPULATION284,000
FACILITIES312
VIO 90D68
ALERTRED
COHORT · 03 · DEMO + ED
Title VI-protected · UK affiliated

Students, faculty, staff at University of Kentucky covered by 2025-10-01 ED OCR resolution agreement (Title VI / §504).

POPULATION34,800
BENCHMARKS27 / 64
RESOLVED9
ALERTWATCH
COHORT · 04 · OWN + LAND
Heirs-property forest landowners

Smallholder forest acreage in undivided-interest title status. Disproportionate exposure to involuntary partition; under-served by stumpage markets.

PARCELS11,400
ACREAGE238 K
STUMPAGE Δ− 3 %
ALERTAMBER
COHORT · 05 · WORK + SAFETY
Logging workforce · Appalachia

BLS NAICS 1133 logging employees + sawmill workers, KY/TN/WV/VA combined. Track wages, fatality rate, MSHA proximity events.

WORKERS9,180
FATAL · 12 MO14
MED. WAGE$18.40/h
ALERTAMBER
COHORT · 06 · GEO + DISP
Reconnecting-Communities corridors

Census tracts adjacent to Rondo / Overtown / Cross-Bronx / Indiana Ave equivalents in KY (I-65 / I-71 / Newtown Pike). Pre-displacement index.

TRACTS42
HOUSEHOLDS56,800
DISP-INDEX71
ALERTAMBER
§ 04

ALERTS · 11 LIVE

012026·05·04
Residential rate burden trips RED on KU class

+$8.73/mo (+6.54 %) crosses the 5 % threshold. Cost-shift attribution to data-center load is R-grade pending Rate-EHLF cost-of-service decomposition. Joint Intervenors notified.

IND · LG&E-RES-Δ · COHORT · 01 · OWNER · CARDELL
RED · ACT
022026·04·30
CWA enforcement events spike across coalfield

214 violations in 90-day window — 62 above 12-mo trailing mean. Spatial cluster around 9 coal-to-DC retrofit zones. ATLAS dispatch sent two field operators for verification at Mill Creek + Brown.

IND · ECHO-VIO · COHORT · 02 · OWNER · WALDEN
RED · ACT
032026·04·22
Lead exceedance cluster · 3 PWS

Three small-system action-level events in 22-day window. Two systems serve Cohort-02 census tracts. Public-health crossover pane refreshed; dossier KY-ENV-ACCT updated.

IND · PWS-LEAD · COHORT · 02 · OWNER · ESCALATED
RED · ACT
042026·04·15
EAB ash mortality pushes through 60 % in Cumberland Plateau plots

Survey plots tied to Daniel Boone NF perimeter return 61.2 % mortality. Affects MARKET WATCH stumpage forecast for ash species mix; affects ATLAS canopy raster for Q3 refresh.

IND · EAB · COHORT · · OWNER · USDA FHM
AMB · WATCH
052026·04·15
UK Title VI compliance · benchmark 27 met

Resolution-agreement benchmark 27 of 64 returned compliant on schedule. Watch level only — cohort-03 indicator remains on track. 36-month plan continues.

IND · OCR-UK · COHORT · 03 · OWNER · ED OCR
WCH · OK
RULEINDICATORWATCHWARNTRIPCURRENTSTATE
R-001Residential rate burden Δ %+ 2.0%+ 4.0%+ 5.0%+ 6.54%TRIPPED
R-007CWA violations · 90-day120160200214TRIPPED
R-014PWS lead exceedances · 90-day3579TRIPPED
R-022EAB ash mortality · plot %40557061.2WARN
R-031DC-load forecast · MW1,2001,8002,2002,140WARN
R-040Displacement risk index50658071WARN
R-052UK OCR benchmarks · % met≤ 25≤ 33≤ 4042CALM
R-061KY canopy cover · YoY pp− 0.5− 1.0− 1.5− 0.4CALM
§ 05

TITLE · VI · & · PUBLIC · HEALTH

OCRRESOL.
DOSSIER · DOS-005 · UK · TITLE VI

University of Kentucky · Resolution agreement

The U.S. Department of Education's Office for Civil Rights resolved its Title VI investigation against the University of Kentucky on 2025·10·01. The agreement runs 36 months and binds the institution to 64 benchmark obligations, of which 27 are reported met as of this issue.

CHIMS tracks each benchmark as its own claim row in the ledger. Section 504 Rehabilitation-Act overlap is noted where benchmarks touch disability-services infrastructure. Joint reporting with the Office of Federal Student Aid resumes Q3 2026.

BENCHMARKS · TOTAL64
MET · CURRENT27
OUTSTANDING37
NEXT REPORTQ3 · 2026
SECTION 504 · X-LINK14
OFA · X-LINK6
CROSSOVER · KY-ENV-ACCT · DOS-006

Public-health crossover · 3 panels

Where civic-rate indicators co-vary with health surveillance, CHIMS publishes a crossover panel. This week's three: energy-burdened asthma, PWS-lead pediatric exposure, and logger-injury rates per stumpage MBF.

PANELSLOPESTATE
Energy burden ↔ asthma ED visits · KU svc+ 0.420.58RED
PWS lead ↔ pediatric blood-Pb > 5 µg/dL+ 0.310.47RED
Logger injury rate ↔ stumpage / MBF− 0.210.34AMB

Panels publish as PDF dossiers per quarter; the underlying joins live in knowledge.crossover_panel with sha-anchor and decision-maker assignment per row.

§ 06

CROSS · REFERENCES

→ ATLAS

Each indicator pins to one or more ATLAS features. Click an indicator on the live dashboard to fly the map to the parcel set that produced it.

forestop-atlas.html
→ MARKET WATCH

Stumpage, EAB, biomass, and labor indicators pull live from the wood-economy series in Market Watch. KY hardwood blend feeds IND-STUMP.

forestop-market-watch.html
→ COMMAND CENTER

Every RED/AMBER alert posts a row to Command's queue. Cardell approves, digs deeper, or rejects. State changes write back here.

forestop-command.html
→ RESEARCH · LEDGER

Indicator deltas attach as evidence to ledger claims. SPR-P cells advance toward V only when the indicator is reproducible from primary sources.

forestop-research.html
CHIMS · CIVIC HEALTH INFORMATION MONITORING SYSTEM OWNER · FOP-CIVIC SET IN OSWALD & SOURCE SERIF · PRINTED ON RECYCLED VECTOR app.forestop.community / chims