KY PRESCRIBED BURN ASSOCIATION · FEASIBILITY EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Kentucky's fire-adapted forests are mesophicating. Original ForestOp work on the FIA tree-record archive (n = 367,634) shows that in the regeneration layer (DBH < 5 in), mesophytes outnumber oaks combined 3.38-to-1; red maple alone outnumbers white oak 6.81-to-1. This is the empirical Kentucky signature of the Nowacki–Abrams (2008) mesophication process. Without fire intervention today's oak overstory will not be replaced in kind.

National science now confirms thinning + prescribed fire reduces later wildfire severity by 62–72% (Davis et al., 2024; TNC, 2024), with effects weakening across ~10 years absent maintenance. Kentucky's wildfire load swung from 17,875 acres (2022) to 47,662 (2023) to 23,896 (2024) — variability the volunteer fire department backbone increasingly cannot absorb (LEX18, 2024).

A 5-year empirical record of 613,536 hourly observations across 14 Kentucky weather stations (ForestOp fire_ml archive, 2021–2026) shows the state averages 40–50 burn-eligible days per year per hub under standard NFDRS-inspired criteria (RH 25–50%, wind 3–15 mph, no heavy precip).

The Eastern Mountains hub — the most critical WUI region — has both the highest burn-window budget and the most pronounced mesophication signature (4.58× mesophyte-to-oak regen ratio). The science and the weather agree where to start.

More than 150 PBAs operate across 21 states, with documented safety records, measurable acreage, and increasingly pooled liability insurance.

• Loess Canyons (NE) — ~90,000 ac restored grassland since 2002.
• Tall Timbers Risk Pool (GA) — 1,600 members, 3 state PBAs covered.
• Kentucky baseline — KPFC + KDF + UK FNR + NRCS + TNC + KDFWR; KRS 149.175 burn-season exemption already in force for certified burn bosses.
• Local proof — 6 KY Rx burns, 440 ac, zero major escapes (ForestOp pba_burn_history).

Pilot two regional hubs under a hub-and-spoke organizational model: Eastern Mountains (Hazard / Pikeville axis) and Bluegrass/Central (Frankfort / Lexington axis). Each hub gets a paid coordinator, a pooled-liability insurance pact modeled on Tall Timbers–Georgia, standardized burn plans, and a GIS-based operations dashboard fed by the ForestOp fire_ml archive.

Under conservative break-even assumptions (15% treatment-prevents-wildfire probability), a lean hub pays for itself at 300–500 treated acres/yr; a typical "core" hub at 540–910 ac/yr — well within the burn-day budget.

Liability insurance for prescribed fire has tightened nationally (Marketplace 2023; Tall Timbers 2024); group policies are more important, not less. ForestOp recommends KRS 149.175 amendment language adding a gross-negligence shield + risk-pool authorization (see Appendix F).

• R1 · Insurance market — group pool mitigates.
• R2 · Burn-boss supply — UK FNR + KDF train-up @ +14/yr.
• R3 · Smoke-window narrowing — KY-DAQ early warning pipeline.
• R4 · Equity flag — Title VI cohorts in 5-mi notification ring.

Total 3-yr ask: ~$6.5M. Counterfactual: status quo, where KDF burns ~3,200 ac/yr against a ~12,000-ac plan and DBNF runs ~6,500 against a 25,000-ac target — 60–74% short.