Statewide median Doyle stumpage moved on a four-quarter median range that confirmed the structural premium for stave-grade white oak and continued softness in pulpwood. Walnut veneer/select spans $2,800–$4,400 /MBF. Red oak #1 grade trades $580–$740. Pulpwood (mixed hardwood) remains in a $8–$14 /ton band, weighed down by Wickliffe idle and regional substitution to OCC.
KDF Mill Directory registers 197 active sawmills and primary processors as of CY2024, vs 211 in 2018 — a 6.6% net loss concentrated in <5 MMBF/yr operations. The top of the pyramid is unchanged: Domtar Hawesville's 460 ktpy fluff line, Verso/Pixelle Wickliffe at ~800 ktpy idle pending restart, and a tier of grade-hardwood mills (Robinson, Cassady, Frank Miller, KFP Brodhead) covering the 10–30 MMBF range.
Stave-cooperage is its own ecosystem: Independent Stave Lebanon and Speyside (TN/KY supply) anchor downstream demand for the white-oak premium. The closure of mid-tier pallet mills (3–8 MMBF) has not erased capacity statewide, but it has thinned the buyer market for landowners outside trucking radius of the top-30.
The white-oak crunch is the single most asymmetric story in KY wood. Bourbon premiumization since 2014 has lifted stave-grade demand ahead of the regenerating supply curve; Lane-3 modeling shows stave-log offtake is consuming 18% of merchantable WO removal versus a 9% historical baseline, while regenerating stands won't reach merchantable size for 30–60 years.
Pulp/paper in Kentucky is a 2-mill structural story. Domtar Hawesville's 460 ktpy fluff/pulp line is the steady-state employer; Verso/Pixelle Wickliffe's ~800 ktpy coated-paper restart, projected for 2026 Q3, would put 150 jobs back on payroll and lift pulpwood pricing 12–18% in a 60-mile radius.
The downside scenario — restart slip past 2027 — keeps a generation of mid-stem mixed-hardwood without a buyer and slows the Sec. 7 mitigation calculus on rotation harvest in DBNF stewardship contracts.
| HTS | Description | EXPORT $M | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4407 | Lumber | 148 | −18.4% |
| 4408 | Veneer | 31 | −9.6% |
| 4403 | Logs (raw) | 22 | −24.0% |
| 4409 | Mldgs/Flooring | 14 | +3.1% |
| 4416 | Casks/staves | 9 | +11.7% |
CN absorbs 38% of the export book — concentration risk on tariff & phyto changes. VN at 14% is rising as a pass-through to CN. CA is the steady third at 11%, almost entirely 4407 lumber to remanufacturers.
Three actions, FY26.
CHIMS will auto-flag any KDF / DBNF stewardship contract that does not bind a stave-grade reserve clause; export books concentrated >30% on a single destination will trigger a Watch alert.