ForestOp · MAP-02 · KY Fire, Smoke & Rx Capacity

SOURCE

NIFC FIRES · KDF Annual Reports · EPA AQS

CY2018–2025 · n = 23,400+ ignitions

LAYERS

1·BASE 2·Rx-CAPACITY 3·IGNITIONS 4·PM2.5 5·OUTAGE

SCALE

50 mi

DOT SCALE · ACRES BURNED

<100 100–1k >1k

FIRE BURDEN · SOUTHEAST KY2018–2025

Wildland fires · annual avg~1,400

Acres burned · annual avg~46,800

Spring peak · share62% Mar–Apr

Cause · arson + debris71%

2016 anomaly · acres141,180

HIGHEST burden countiesBell · Harlan · Letcher · Pike

Rx-BURN CAPACITY GAPFY24 · KDF/USFS

KDF Rx burns — ~3,200 ac/yr realized · ~12,000 ac/yr planned · 73% short
DBNF (USFS) — ~6,500 ac/yr realized · target 25,000 ac/yr · 74% short
NPS (Mammoth/Cumberland) — ~1,800 ac/yr · target 4,500 ac/yr · 60% short
Burn-day calendar — 38 favorable days median · 19 used (50%)
Constraints — staffing 2:1 below NWCG min · permit lag 11 d · KY-DAQ smoke window narrow
Equity flag — Title VI cohorts in burn-day notification radius: 37 census tracts
FY26 ask — +14 burn bosses · KY interagency cell · DBNF airshed model

STORM-DRIVEN OUTAGE → IGNITIONL5 · 2018–2025

Major outage events (≥50k cust)42

Tied to ice/wind in fuel-loaded corridors14

Confirmed corridor ignitions~31

UVM gap · KY rural corridors$28M/yr underspent

JAN

cool

FEB

cool

MAR

PEAK

APR

PEAK

MAY

Rx WIN

JUN

grow

JUL

grow

AUG

grow

SEP

Rx WIN

OCT

elev

NOV

PEAK

DEC

cool